It might not be the Baby Boom, but it could be a good sized Baby Blip.
After historic declines in the number of babies born last year and through 2021 – this after a steady decline in the birth rate for several years – some forecasters say there could be a mini-boom next year so America is making up for lost time in a number of areasâ¦ including babies.
The birth rate reversal may not be sustainable and may represent more delayed family formation than any general change in overall demographics, but it would certainly be good news for dozens of industries – toy companies to children’s clothing brands and daycare centers. baby food and CPG products.
“Assuming there is no derailment in the economy or in public health, we could see a short-lived baby boom from 2022,” Deborah Weinswig recently wrote in her Coresight Research newsletter. “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig”. But she warned “we don’t expect the long-term downtrend to reverse.”
But if you buy into the old adage that people start families after marriage, what is happening in the marriage business could be a good indicator. After a sharp drop in the number of marriages last year, from historic levels of around two million per year to less than 1.3 million, we are seeing a dramatic increase so far this year. Wedding venues, wedding dress makers, caterers, and everyone else affiliated with the wedding process report a solid business – very solid.
Richard Kestenbaum, co-founder and partner of Triangle Capital, a financial services consultancy, recently wrote on Forbes.com âThe (number of) marriages that have been postponed in 2020 is creating a huge backlog in 2021 and the number this year is likely. to be the highest of all time.
Will this trend apply to new babies? Certainly, some companies are counting on it. Bed Bath & Beyond, which owns the buybuyBaby retail chain, reports strong growth in this unit and expects it to be the same in the future. And Ashley HomeStore, the nation’s largest furniture chain, just launched Ashley Baby & Kids, representing an expansion of its existing efforts in the baby and kids furniture category.
We are also seeing extremely strong activity in the housing market, partly driven by limited supply, but also reflecting the demand for suburban housing from new generation consumers leaving cities to start a family. . These are the circumstances that created the original post-WWII baby boom from the late 1940s and 1950s through the early 1960s. And while no one suggests an increase of this magnitude – nor any long-term trends – optimism that the number of babies expected to increase by next year is sure to be sweet dreams for many companies serving the industry. They will most certainly even host a Blip after all these years of Bust.