Election impact of Kavanaugh’s confirmation may reveal Roe V. Wade’s effect on midterms

  • 40 Republican House seats went to Democratic candidates after Kavanaugh was confirmed in 2018.
  • In 27 of those races, GOP candidates were leading in polls taken before Kavanaugh’s contentious hearings.
  • The reaction to its confirmation may show how the repeal of Roe v. Wade could have an impact on this year’s midterms.

As political analysts seek to understand the possible impact of the overturning of Roe v. Wade on this year’s midterm elections, some suggest the 2018 data could reveal possible trends.

In 2018, following controversial confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh – who was accused of sexual assault by Christine Ford – 40 Republican seats in the US House were awarded to Democratic candidates. GOP candidates led in polls taken before the hearings and then lost in November in 27 of those races, indicating increased mobilization among partisan voters following the hearings.

“That’s when the midterm elections were decided. All that led up to that was, for many Americans, a gradual erosion of political and societal norms. But nonetheless, it was progressive. Often politically imperceptible. A state of general malaise favoring the status quo an electoral revolution,” wrote BJ Rudell, a political strategist, in an opinion piece for The Hill.

He continued, “But Republicans giving an accused sexual predator a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land was the lightning rod that struck the political lives of 27 House Republicans who, up to that point, had had a good chance to win in November and keep the chamber in the hands of the GOP.”

The Supreme Court’s decision on Friday to repeal federal abortion protections established by Roe v. Wade could lead to a similar increase in election activity midway through this year. Historically, first-term presidents often lose seats in Congress in the first half terms, but recent polls indicate a widening gap when it comes to whether voters want Republican or Democratic candidates in office. Congress.

While Democratic candidates launched massive mobilization and fundraising efforts in the days following the decision, it is unclear whether Democratic leaders’ plans for a voter turnout blitz will lead to election results.

“For the Democrats to win – and possibly win big – in November, they already have everything they need: they simply need to make the 2022 midterm elections a referendum for the majority of citizens who recognize that the Immoral 19th century standards do not belong in 21st-century America,” Rudell wrote for The Hill.

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